• April 18, 2025

The Uncertainty World

Markets don’t like uncertainty. It is a cliché, but for a very good reason. It is more than a truism. In fact, businesses don’t like uncertainty. You and I don’t like uncertainty in our personal lives. When we go to the store, we want to be certain that what we are looking for is there, and at a reasonable price. We want our food orders to be certain. We want our relationships to be certain. In fact, the relationships we value most are the ones in which we feel certain whether it’s personal,...

• April 11, 2025

The Uncertainty Recession

You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.

• March 28, 2025

Do Trade Deficits Matter?

Financial market news has seemingly become all tariffs, all the time. The president’s plan, whatever it is, seems to spring from his belief that trade deficits are bad and must be eliminated. Tariffs are just a means to that end.

• March 21, 2025

The Inflationista Illuminati, Part 2

The theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession. That is certainly what today’s writer and my friend, Danielle DiMartino Booth, points to in this second part of her data-driven inflation analysis, which I share below. She believes the mainstream media, both financial and otherwise, is missing the fact that inflation is going to come down faster than most analysts expect—including those at the Federal...

• March 14, 2025

The Inflationista Illuminati

Last week we published a chart of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which had just dropped sharply to a -2.4% real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025. This model can be volatile. Its latest big swing was mostly an artifact of spiking gold imports. Economic growth prospects do seem to have dimmed considerably, though.

• March 7, 2025

When Valuations Collide…

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

—Yale economist Irving Fisher 12 days before Black Monday in October 1929

• February 28, 2025

The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated

Bull’s Eye Investing was published on January 1, 2004. It quickly became a bestseller. The main thing that people still ask me about was a trifold spread color chart of stock market returns since 1900. Returns were color-coded so readers could see the ebb and flow of returns over time. That remarkable representation of market performance was created by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed and I shared a very nerdy, wonkish fascination with markets and trends. We spent a great deal of time...

• February 21, 2025

Revenue Thoughts

Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.

• February 14, 2025

Trump Confusion Syndrome

I think I’m going to start a new 12-step program. I sense there are a lot of potential members. The meetings would start with something like this: 

“Hi. My name is John. I have Trump Confusion Syndrome. I don’t think it’s contagious, but many of my friends are suffering similar symptoms.

• February 7, 2025

Serious Side Effects

Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…