Over My Shoulder

David Kotok: ECB Policy Shift

March 15, 2016

The recent ECB actions were not well-understood initially; but it didn’t take long for some savvy market players to read the fine print and see that this was massively bullish for European banks and therefore the euro, even as rates went more negative. Now central banks are paying banks to make loans? Not just 0% money, but we will pay you 40 basis points to make a loan? How can you not make a profit, even if you're offering low rates?
 
I have seen several analyses over the past few days, but my friend David Kotok has written one that is easy to grasp. This is the future for countries that do NIRP. Coming to a central bank near you. Go back and read the Zervos piece I posted and think about the two in context.

Download - Cumberland_Advisors_Market_Commentary_ECB_Policy_Shift%C2%A0.pdf