Global Macro Update Archive

May 26, 2023

Debt Debacle Costs $1 Billion per Day

We are finally hearing a resolution may be in sight for the debt ceiling, though I suspect this will drag out to Monday or even Tuesday. Why waste a good crisis, after all?

April 21, 2023

Seeking to Understand Energy, Macro, and More…

Do the days and weeks seem shorter to you lately? Maybe that’s an unkind feature of getting older. I have so much more I want to learn and understand, and not enough time to process it all.

April 14, 2023

From Theory to Reality

A stress test is exactly that: a test. It is a mix of assumptions about adverse events and their theoretical outcomes. Ironically, the Fed released its 2023 bank stress test scenarios just weeks before the latest banking crisis erupted.

April 7, 2023

Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

The last major recession began in 2007. Since then, central banks have done everything in their power to avoid such an event. But then, inflation.

March 31, 2023

Are Banks Signaling a Recession?

Up until February, you would have done well to be overweight banks. “Banks do well in a rising interest rate environment” was the simple thesis. And that’s true if the banks have competent risk management.

March 24, 2023

Bank Failures and the Return of MBS

My guest this week, Barry Habib of MBS Highway, breaks down in detail where SVB got it wrong and how mortgage-backed securities worked against the bank.

March 10, 2023

A Compelling Case for the Bulls

“Dr. Ed” has been in the markets for over 40 years. He was an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York before becoming chief economist at EF Hutton and then a chief investment strategist at Prudential Equity Group and Deutsche Bank’s US equity division.

March 3, 2023

We’re Getting Smuckered

In this week’s Global Macro Update discussion, Sam Rines notes that the government no longer sets the minimum wage. Walmart does. When Walmart moved its nationwide minimum hiring rate to $14/hour, nearly all other employers had to follow suit.

February 24, 2023

The world is out of balance

What does a new normal look like? That’s the topic I covered with Bruce Mehlman in this week’s Global Macro Update interview (link at the bottom of this letter).

February 3, 2023

A Return to Normal

This week, we checked in on the fixed-income market with an asset manager who controls $40 billion in capital.

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