Global Macro Update Archive

June 30, 2023

Qué Pasa, Markets?

If you listen to the financial media, you’d think seven stocks are responsible for “the market’s” gain this year. But the charts are telling us otherwise.

June 16, 2023

Coping with a Higher Education Cost Spiral

The cost of college has risen so high that more than half of Americans no longer think a college education is “worth it.”

June 9, 2023

AI Is an Unstoppable Disruptive Trend That Will Affect All of Us

The release of ChatGPT late last year triggered a firestorm of debate about both the promise and dystopian risks of artificial intelligence (AI). Some have labeled it the Great AI Freak Out of 2023.

June 2, 2023

The US Must Overcome Its Four Addictions

Any sense of normal will remain elusive until we address what Bruce describes as “addictions.”

May 26, 2023

Debt Debacle Costs $1 Billion per Day

We are finally hearing a resolution may be in sight for the debt ceiling, though I suspect this will drag out to Monday or even Tuesday. Why waste a good crisis, after all?

April 21, 2023

Seeking to Understand Energy, Macro, and More…

Do the days and weeks seem shorter to you lately? Maybe that’s an unkind feature of getting older. I have so much more I want to learn and understand, and not enough time to process it all.

April 14, 2023

A stress test is exactly that: a test. It is a mix of assumptions about adverse events and their theoretical outcomes. Ironically, the Fed released its 2023 bank stress test scenarios just weeks before the latest banking crisis erupted.

April 7, 2023

Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

The last major recession began in 2007. Since then, central banks have done everything in their power to avoid such an event. But then, inflation.

March 31, 2023

Are Banks Signaling a Recession?

Up until February, you would have done well to be overweight banks. “Banks do well in a rising interest rate environment” was the simple thesis. And that’s true if the banks have competent risk management.

March 24, 2023

Bank Failures and the Return of MBS

My guest this week, Barry Habib of MBS Highway, breaks down in detail where SVB got it wrong and how mortgage-backed securities worked against the bank.

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