• May 19, 2023

Technology Turning

We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy. But when I use the word technology here, I'm not talking about the big, nifty eight tech companies that dominate today’s stock market. I'm talking more about the entire scope of technological advances over the past 300+ years. None of our economy today is possible without those advances....

• April 22, 2022

Into the Fire

If you haven’t noticed—perhaps because you live on Mars—inflation is here. Not just in the US but almost everywhere. Prices for everyday goods and services, including necessities like food, are climbing rapidly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through March… and we know it understates categories like housing.

• April 15, 2022

More on the Yield Curve and Helping Ukraine

It’s Easter weekend, so we are going to revisit a 2018 letter about the yield curve. The yield curve is much misunderstood and misused by many analysts. This letter will give you the tools to understand the correct importance and relevance of the yield curve. And then, a few comments about Ukraine.

• March 4, 2022

Change Squared

“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

• February 25, 2022

The Three-Act Recovery, Plus Your Questions

This week’s news is seemingly all about Ukraine and Russia. It is a terrible situation. But as an economic matter, we still have serious economic challenges no matter how it develops.

• October 15, 2021

Logistical Sandpiles

At the risk of overusing a favorite metaphor, today we’ll talk about sandpiles. My past sandpile stories focused on financial crises. The same principle holds in any complex system, though. Everything works until suddenly it doesn’t. As Minsky said, stability breeds instability. Then one additional grain of sand triggers a collapse.