Labor Day weekend finds me in far northwest British Columbia, fishing with 29 of my readers. The conversations are deep and fascinating, and it should be no surprise that politics and markets are brought up more often than not. Labor Day is traditionally when most Americans, other than us political junkies, actually begin noticing politics.
Read moreThere was an historically large revision to the unemployment data this week, which was even worse than the headline when you dig into the actual numbers. On top of that, there is some “behind the numbers” data on inflation, which is typically not talked about, that will have a big impact on the Fed decision, not to mention traders and mortgages. This all has implications for the economy and maybe even for the election. While it's not quite Sophie's Choice, it's still not easy for the Fed....
Read moreIn basketball and other sports, a “head fake” means the player moves their head as if they are about to turn left or right, but then doesn’t do so. This can fool an opposing player into moving the wrong way.
Read moreI can't let this month pass without noting a significant anniversary: This is the 25th year I’ve been writing Thoughts from the Frontline. The first few issues were lost to the electronic gods and my lack of technical prowess back then. That quickly changed. You can visit the archive and see every issue since January 2001 (including, trust me, some I would like to remove). That's roughly 5 million words, not counting 7 (soon to be 8) books, numerous papers and articles, speeches, emails, and...
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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