Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, October 2020

What Will Not Change
  • October 30, 2020

What Will Not Change

“If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.”

—Sir Isaac Newton, 1675

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The Green Shoots of 2020
  • October 23, 2020

The Green Shoots of 2020

Those who lived through the last financial crisis might may recall the Green Shoots episode. It drew laughs on March 15, 2009, shortly after the Federal Reserve fired its heaviest artillery and, we now know, launched the longest bull market in history.

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Timeline to the New Normal
  • October 9, 2020

Timeline to the New Normal

Like everyone else, I am weary of this pandemic mess. I want to travel freely, enjoy dinner with friends, hug, and shake hands.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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