Connecting the Dots Archive - Patrick Watson

Connecting the Dots Archive, September 2024

September 17, 2024

Still Falling Apart

I’m not sure Fed policy really matters. We have more serious problems. And, like when a dam ruptures, they’re starting as small but relentless little cracks.

August 20, 2024

Health and Wealth

It’s election time again in the US. We have a new issue this time.

July 16, 2024

Things Fall Apart

Writers who want to describe sweeping global change often quote the W.B. Yeats poem.

June 18, 2024

Choose Your Insurance Poison

Owning your home may be the American Dream, but to many Americans, it’s only a dream.

May 21, 2024

The Giant Debt Problem Everyone Is Missing

April 16, 2024

No More Recessions?

Unexpected questions are valuable.

March 19, 2024

Dumbest Scandal Ever

I’m sorry to shock anyone

February 20, 2024

Musical Economics

Music isn’t just entertainment. It activates a different part of your brain where interesting things can happen.

January 16, 2024

Evading the Problem

Winter here in the northern hemisphere has a new stage now.

December 19, 2023

The AI Is Listening

Strange things are happening in the artificial intelligence world.

November 21, 2023

EVs and iPhones

Remember life before smartphones?

October 17, 2023

An Unsolvable Problem

Economic growth depends on boring things we rarely think about. Property insurance, for example.

September 19, 2023

When the Worker Shortage Can Kill You

The US labor shortage isn’t really “news” anymore.

August 15, 2023

Summer of Strikes

Remember when summer meant baseball, hot dogs, and swimming pools?

July 18, 2023

The Worker Shortage Will Get Worse, Not Better

Wishful thinking is a powerful force. We all want to believe good things are coming.

June 20, 2023

Labor Market Math

Quite a few experts think the US economy will enter recession soon. If so, someone forgot to tell the labor market.

May 16, 2023

Debt Ceiling Fakery

The United States is about to hit its credit limit.

April 18, 2023

Naked Banking

Warren Buffett, always good for a pithy quote, once said...

March 21, 2023

Worker’s Poker

Remember Salomon Brothers?

February 21, 2023

The Dumbest Way to Save Social Security

Last month the 70 million or so people receiving Social Security benefits all got an 8.7% raise.

January 17, 2023

Workers Want to Work but It’s Still Not Enough

Remember when “jobs, jobs, jobs” was a political talking point?

December 19, 2022

A New Kind of Recession

Back in the 1990s somebody coined the phrase 'jobless recovery.' It describes an economy where recession is over, but unemployment remains stubbornly high.

November 22, 2022

It’s Not Just Twitter

If you follow the news on Twitter, lately you’ve see a lot of news about Twitter. New owner Elon Musk wasted no time shaking things up.

October 24, 2022

The Energy Solution You Probably Missed

Over in the United Kingdom, where energy prices are a growing problem, climate protestors have been throwing soup at Van Gogh paintings. Others in Germany glued themselves to a museum floor, demanding an immediate shift to 100% green energy.

September 27, 2022

Productivity Is Easy to Fix

The US labor shortage is double trouble: The economy lacks enough workers, and the average worker is less productive.

August 30, 2022

Employers Don’t Know What’s Hitting Them

Hiring managers have had a rough couple of years. If that’s you, I have bad news: Don’t expect much improvement in the labor shortage.

July 12, 2022

The US Has a Deadly Economic Problem

Financial analysts often call the United States “the world’s strongest economy,” with high and constantly improving living standards.

June 21, 2022

The Only Way Out of This Mess

Remember when inflation was going to be transitory? Good times.

May 24, 2022

Fossil Fuels Will Disappear but Not Just Yet

You may have noticed higher fuel prices recently. If not, you will soon.

April 19, 2022

American Business Has Never Seen Anything Like This

One year ago, the US labor market was almost at equilibrium.

March 15, 2022

Frying Pans and Inflation Fires

“Out of the frying pan, into the fire” isn’t just a trite old saying. Economically, it may be a great metaphor for 2022.

February 7, 2022

Dying for GDP

When COVID came along two years ago, it sparked a lot of fear—and not just fear of the virus. Some people were more afraid of virus restrictions hurting the economy.

January 11, 2022

Omicron Kills Output, Spares Jobs

The dramatically-named Omicron COVID-19 variant is moving fast. If you don’t know anyone who’s had it (or been infected yourself), you probably will soon.

December 21, 2021

Labor Force Sickness

For almost two years after COVID’s emergence, the Federal Reserve pumped money into the economy every way it could. Jerome Powell and his crew kept the pace even as the economy improved a lot.

November 16, 2021

The Great Resignation is Becoming Self-Aware

In The Terminator films, we were told Skynet became self-aware at 2:14 am on August 4, 1997. Bad things followed.

October 11, 2021

Big Bad Employers

If you’re an American worker, you probably have a new job, or you’re looking for a new job, or you at least want a new job. Pundits call all this shuffling “The Great Resignation.” The pandemic caused it, they say.

September 21, 2021

The Labor Shortage Is Bigger than You Think

“Either/or” thinking is one of the great scourges of our time. We want to think every dilemma has a quick answer. This is rarely so.

August 31, 2021

The Economics of Rudeness

You may have noticed your favorite restaurant is short on staff. The same in retail stores, hotels, and other service businesses.

August 24, 2021

Where Is the End?

You may not remember World War II, but you know broadly how it went. We’ve all seen the movies.

August 10, 2021

How to Vaccinate Almost Everyone

Remember when COVID-19 vaccines were going to bring “herd immunity?” Good times.

August 3, 2021

The Virus Isn’t Finished with Us Yet

Last week brought some good economic news. The US economy, as measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is back where it was at the end of 2019, before the pandemic wreaked havoc on the next two quarters.

July 20, 2021

Why Automation Won’t Solve the Labor Shortage

The official employment data is a bit confusing.

July 13, 2021

The Job Tables Are Turning

Let’s review some ancient history… as in six months ago.

June 29, 2021

Too Much Capital, Not Enough Labor

I try not to blame economists for being wrong. I think most try to interpret the data fairly. It’s easy to miss (or misunderstand) important information.

June 15, 2021

Hyperinflation, COVID-Style

The US Consumer Price Index is up 5% since May 2020, according to data released last week. This was the largest 12-month increase since 2008.

June 8, 2021

The Labor Shortage May Be Permanent

According to some business owners and Wall Street pundits, US employers can’t hire enough people because unemployment benefits are too high. We’re paying people not to work, they say.

May 25, 2021

The “Long COVID” Economy

According to some analysts, inflation is coming soon. Americans will spend like crazy and drive prices higher as the pandemic recedes.

May 18, 2021

Vaccines and Inflation Risk

Yay, no more masks… sort of. New CDC guidance says the 37% of Americans who are fully vaccinated can safely stop masking most of the time.

May 11, 2021

About that Labor Shortage

I have a childhood memory of Sesame Street’s little song, “One of these things is not like the other.” It was a useful lesson: Some things just don’t fit, and you can’t force them.

April 27, 2021

Capital Gains Problem

I saw a funny-but-true meme last week. It was about the food we grow.

April 20, 2021

Vaccine-Driven Boom May Fizzle

The narrative is nice to imagine: The US economy will grow fast in 2021 as we beat the coronavirus and everyone shops freely, travels widely, and hugs random strangers.

April 6, 2021

Vaccine Passports and the Economy

A distressing aspect of the pandemic—aside from the sickness, death, and recession—is the way it turned into a political and social wedge.

March 23, 2021

Light from the Shadows

Light and dark are opposites, but not equal. Light always wins. Introduce just a little light into a cave, and it’s not dark anymore.

March 16, 2021

Biden’s COVID Bill Has a Giant Economic Surprise

Last week President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” into law. Together with other packages passed under former President Trump, the federal government has now spent, or agreed to spend, about $5 trillion on pandemic-related programs.

March 9, 2021

American Jobs Mirage

The latest US monthly jobs data showing employers created 379,000 new jobs in February generated much celebration and, for those who fear inflation, a little fear.

February 23, 2021

When Texas Went Back in Time

Finding yourself in the middle of national news is rarely good. But I did last week as much of Texas went dark and thirsty in a major winter storm.

February 16, 2021

Bitcoin Will Never Be Money

The Bitcoin digital currency’s dollar price is hitting new highs. Good news if you own some.

February 9, 2021

Economics Explains Why Vaccinations Are Hard

When your roof is in flames, you don’t shop for the most convenient and low-priced fire department. Others already made that choice for you.

January 26, 2021

What’s the Worst that Could Happen?

“Never tell me the odds,” said Han Solo to C-3PO as he deftly navigated through the asteroid field. They made it. But The Empire Strikes Back was a movie. SARS-CoV-2 is real.

January 19, 2021

Biden’s Minimum Wage

Last week President-Elect Joe Biden revealed a pandemic relief proposal. The list was mostly predictable: direct cash payments, enhanced unemployment benefits, vaccine funding, help for state and local governments.

January 12, 2021

Vaccines Are Not Enough

“Houston, we have a problem,” said the Apollo 13 crew. Now Houston is a problem as some of its largest hospitals reach 100% ICU occupancy.

January 5, 2021

This Vaccine Map Will Define 2021

Many have optimistic outlooks because they expect the COVID-19 pandemic to end this year. They vary mainly on when the inevitable boom will start. But nearly all assume…

December 22, 2020

2020 Was a Lesson in Connection

Christmas is a little different this year. I haven’t been to any shopping malls but I hear they are not exactly crowded.

December 15, 2020

The Restaurant Question

Here we go again. The much-anticipated winter surge is here and COVID-19 cases are filling hospital wards across the US. Some governors have responded by, among other things, forbidding indoor restaurant service in their states.

December 8, 2020

Economic Herd Immunity Will Take Awhile

Governments around the world met this pandemic in various ways, ranging from brutal, near-universal lockdown in China to Sweden’s laissez-faire voluntary approach. And everything in between.

December 1, 2020

We Can’t Vaccinate the Economy Fast Enough

A new economic narrative is forming: Vaccines will make next year better. By mid-2021 business should start going back to normal.

November 24, 2020

The Burial Boom of 2020

We’ve learned a lot about COVID-19 since the pandemic started. There’s still no cure, but we have better treatments. Highly effective vaccines seem to be coming, too.

November 17, 2020

Why We Don’t Need More Lockdowns

Here we go again. US hospitals are filling with COVID-19 cases, and some governors are tightening restrictions. Is this really necessary?

November 10, 2020

Economic Pain Reliever Needed

So a few important things happened last week. The US election was one—but, in the short-term, not necessarily the most important.

November 3, 2020

Healthcare Should Be on the Ballot

On Election Day four years ago I wrote about healthcare.

October 27, 2020

Prepare for a Cold Viral Winter

George Washington’s Continental Army spent the winter of 1777–78 at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, in painfully harsh conditions.

October 20, 2020

7 Silver Linings in the Pandemic Cloud

Every cloud has a silver lining, goes the saying. Can we say the same for pandemics?

July 21, 2020

Will America Accept the Worst?

Even in normal times, the news describes murders, accidents, wars, natural disasters, and the passing of once-famous celebrities.

July 7, 2020

Help the Economy by Going Outside

COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US. The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying.

June 30, 2020

Travel Virus Strikes Economy

We’ve escaped the frying pan and found the fire. COVID-19 cases are now growing faster than they were when the first US lockdowns occurred last March.

June 23, 2020

The Corona Depression Is Here

The US economy entered recession at the end of February, according to the economists who officially define such things. But will it get even worse?

June 9, 2020

To Stay Informed, Watch Less TV

Pop math quiz: What is 1918 + 1932 + 1968?

Your calculator may say 5,818, but the real answer is 2020. This year has turned into a combination of those three historic years. In the US, we have

May 26, 2020

To Help the Economy, Wear a Mask

“You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink,” says an old saying.

May 19, 2020

Reopening Isn’t About Class Warfare

In theory, outside threats should make people set aside differences. The novel coronavirus seems to be doing the opposite.

May 12, 2020

The Great Reopening Gamble

We knew the April US jobs data would be ugly. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program last Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari predicted “the worst is yet to come.”

May 5, 2020

The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America

Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.

April 28, 2020

No, the Economy Isn’t Re-Opening Soon

“America will be open for business very soon,” said President Trump on March 23, just a week after local authorities began issuing stay-at-home orders.

April 21, 2020

We Don’t Have Markets Anymore

The novel coronavirus is destroying human lives: almost 170,000 worldwide as I write this, including 40,000+ in the United States.

April 14, 2020

Why the Coronavirus Could Raise Wages

US unemployment shot higher in the last month, thanks to coronavirus closures. Some 17 million people filed new jobless benefit claims.

April 7, 2020

Coronavirus Socialism

When (hopefully soon) we all get out of coronavirus lockdown and try to resume normal life, we will probably find a different “normal.”

March 31, 2020

Coronavirus Is Trade War on Steroids

“The new coronavirus is changing everything,” say many pundits.

March 24, 2020

Coronavirus Stimulus Is an Investment in Life

Following the coronavirus news from home? Good for you. Home is where we should all be, except for medical, food, public safety, and other essential workers.

March 17, 2020

Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities

Bought any groceries lately? You probably weren’t alone. Nor were you surrounded by crazy people. The store mobs are perfectly rational, given recent events.

March 10, 2020

Lockdown Risk and Viral Attitudes

Financial professionals talk about all kinds of risk: credit risk, interest rate risk, political risk, inflation risk… the list goes on. Now, we have a new one.

March 3, 2020

How COVID-19 Leads to 2008-Style Bank Crisis

The COVID-19 virus is pushing an economy that was already approaching a cliff. Will it go over the edge?

February 25, 2020

US Capitalism Not Helping Itself

“A specter is haunting American capitalists—the specter of Bernie Sanders.”

February 18, 2020

The Fed Wants Americans to Suffer

Last week, the Senate Banking Committee held a confirmation hearing for Judy Shelton, whom President Trump has nominated to the Federal Reserve Board.

February 11, 2020

Two Issues Will Drive Election and Economy

Allegedly smart people say the economy depends on the election and the election depends on the economy.

February 4, 2020

The Political Tail Risk No One Sees Coming

Many 2020 market forecasts say politics will be a key factor this year. The US is starkly divided between parties with radically different policy agendas.