• March 7, 2025

When Valuations Collide…

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

—Yale economist Irving Fisher 12 days before Black Monday in October 1929

• February 28, 2025

The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated

Bull’s Eye Investing was published on January 1, 2004. It quickly became a bestseller. The main thing that people still ask me about was a trifold spread color chart of stock market returns since 1900. Returns were color-coded so readers could see the ebb and flow of returns over time. That remarkable representation of market performance was created by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed and I shared a very nerdy, wonkish fascination with markets and trends. We spent a great deal of time...

• February 21, 2025

Revenue Thoughts

Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.

• February 14, 2025

Trump Confusion Syndrome

I think I’m going to start a new 12-step program. I sense there are a lot of potential members. The meetings would start with something like this: 

“Hi. My name is John. I have Trump Confusion Syndrome. I don’t think it’s contagious, but many of my friends are suffering similar symptoms.

• February 7, 2025

Serious Side Effects

Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…

• January 31, 2025

Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World

“There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote from Vladimir Lenin, who may have copied it from someone else. Regardless of origin, it is true and will be even more true as technology and even government changes faster. We may have just lived through such a week for the financial markets—and maybe for the whole global economy.

• January 24, 2025

Crucial Questions

The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming. We can only know what we want. For a variety of reasons, we may or may not get it, not least of which is that we want a variety of things that may not overlap with what our fellow citizens want.

• January 17, 2025

A Possible Storm

Rain can be either refreshing or destructive. It can make plants grow or produce devastating floods. But in all cases, it’s largely outside human control. Or is it?

• January 10, 2025

A Partly Cloudy Year

Weather forecasters tell us what kind of weather we should expect. They can be wrong, but their short-term outlooks are generally reliable. The old joke that economists exist to make weathermen look good is funny because it has a ring of ironic truth.

• January 3, 2025

A Controversial Start

It was an amazingly short week, punctuated by making 20 gallons of chili, serving almost 300 of my neighbors, and then recovering the next day, which didn’t leave a lot of time for in-depth analysis and forecasts. I’m sure you will be happy with the shortened letter as we cover some of the main events of last year and the ones that will have the most impact this year. A few will surprise you. Let’s jump in.