Over My Shoulder

The next bubble

May 9, 2012

I suggest you read the last part of this letter from my friend Niels Jensen of ARP in London. He makes a very good point as he looks for the next bubble: Now switch your attention to Asia. Many Asian currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, either directly or indirectly. As a result, the central banks of those countries are forced to keep the policy rate at a level which may be entirely inappropriate for the rapidly growing Asian economies. Obviously, removing the dollar peg would address this dilemma, but that is a pie in the sky so long as the mercantilist approach that most Asian countries subscribe to prevails. The Bank for International Settlements published a paper recently where it pointed out just how lax monetary policy is throughout Asia. With the exception of Japan, every single country in the BIS study appears to be behind the curve (see chart 5). This raises all kinds of issues for Asia longer term—increased use of leverage, inflationary pressures, asset price bubbles, etc. Does it sound familiar?

Download - The_Absolute_Return_Letter_0512.pdf