Over My Shoulder

The European Central Bank of Japan? Disinflation Is Looming

May 10, 2013

I found this piece from some of Roubini’s researchers well-reasoned:

"The current low inflation in the eurozone (EZ) is mainly caused by large output gaps, a narrow focus on headline inflation, deleveraging in the aftermath of the crisis and unwarranted optimism in the past. The future does not bode well for inflation in the EZ either: The fiscal drag will ease but not reverse in order to support growth; high unemployment will exert pressure on wages for years to come; the world economy does not look strong going into 2014; structural issues in part prevent the high growth necessary to reduce unemployment; and disinflation is a phenomenon that feeds on itself, especially in a monetary union. The ECB will become increasingly desperate to ignite inflation: Household and corporate deleveraging is far from over; a deposit rate cut will have only a limited impact; the exchange rate mechanism may work to some extent, but depends also on the actions of other more dovish central banks; and it is politically difficult for the ECB to find consensus on unconventional measures in time."

Download - analysis-f96018c5c610ec17d61532ead2ad119b.pdf