Over My Shoulder

The Coming French Depression

July 13, 2012

In France, as the public sector grows the private sector dwindles, leaving France ever less competitive with the likes of Germany and setting the stage for what Charles Gave terms a "secondary depression." "We have, of course, seen this movie before in Greece, Spain and Italy, so it is very likely that French long rates will shoot up as they did in those now crisis-bound economies. But the real worry for France is that this cycle of decline ends up substantially intensified by measures that massively increase taxes on companies and the middle class, increase the cost of labor and expand regulations on real estate, thereby impeding pretty much all productive activities."

Download - GaveKal.pdf