This is a quick note from Sam Rines on the direction of the dollar, familiar to most OMS readers and really a wickedly brilliant young economist, young being relative on my part.

Let me note that I'm not sure I agree 100% with Rines, as far as correlation and causation, because there's something happening out in the macro world that is blasphemous to "accepted" macroeconomic theory. The Japanese Yen got stronger as their deficit got bigger. But maybe that's just a Japanese phenomenon. But there has been a relationship between the deficit and the strength of the dollar for almost 30 years.