OK, I put on my yen trade, and NOW Nouriel tells me that my 10-year option idea may have been a good one because the yen is going nowhere this year. Interesting read and one which I look forward to discussing with Kyle Bass and Ian Bremmer at the conference. Partial quote:

"The BoJ is aware that the market has perceived its recent signals as hawkish and may have contributed to the yen strengthening and stock-market weakness; it does not rule out more QE—as early as July—if inflation and the growth outlook disappoint, given the possibility of external shocks (a China slowdown, an escalation in Ukraine, eurozone weakness) or domestic performance below its expectations. But the BoJ would prefer not to be publically dovish, mostly because of its worries about a potential overheating of the labor market. The fact that, unlike in the past, the prime minister’s advisors are not pressuring the BoJ to ease sooner is consistent with the latter wanting to be cautious.

"Indeed, all the players we spoke in Tokyo were, for once, in unison, arguing that the economy is on track to achieve the policy makers’ goals and that additional QE this year is not, for now, warranted.

"Whether the policy officials will be correct in their optimism about growth and inflation (and the results of Abenomics’ so-called 'third arrow,' which we discuss next) is open to debate."