I know I've been talking about the short VIX/vol trade and risk parity coming undone, but when the wheels fall off the high-yield markets there is absolutely no liquidity, nowhere near what is going to be necessary to be able to "hit the bids." Now, that is going to trigger a real bear market. And it will probably happen when we are getting close to the onset of a recession, which will actually trigger the recession.

I mentioned this piece at the end of last week's letter, but you really should read it.