Over My Shoulder

Justin Wolfers: “Why Most Economists Are So Worried About Trump”

January 12, 2017

I'm going to be writing about this whole problem with economics in two weeks, but I thought I would send you this now. It's more than just the PTESD – Post-Trump Election Stress Disorder – that I talked about in yesterday's OTB. These economist guys, who have a track record of being remarkably removed from the real world but who feel their theories deserve something like biblical status, are truly worried about being left out of the room as decisions about the economy are made by the new administration. I mean, seriously, can you  imagine decisions being made about the economy by the people who participate in it as opposed to those who merely theorize about it? Catastrophic!

I am more and more convinced that the bulk of the economics profession is founded on false premises, and thus it is not surprising when their models turn out to have no value in predicting the future or telling us what we should do. They're not even very good at predicting the past. Seriously.

There is a very small but growing group of economists who are beginning to discuss economics in terms of complexity theory. It may take them a few generations to unseat the academics who are not going to want to give up the orthodoxy of the old-time religion.

Download - Why_Most_Economists_Are_So_Worried_About_Trump.pdf