My friend George Friedman has just written a very interesting article entitled "A Net Assessment of East Asia," which deals with the geopolitical and economic relationships among the Asian community and vis-à-vis the United States. It is not too long and there are some real gems in the middle of the essay. The key point is this quote:

"It is important to note the sequential enthusiasm Westerners have had to Japan's and China's economic development. Both were seen not as they were — simply a phase of the Asian countries' history — but as a permanent process that would cause each country to rapidly surpass the rest of the world. Westerners did not recognize that this process had inherent limits that would assert themselves in due course. Therefore, the lingering perception in the West about East Asia — or, in its current phase, of China — is that it is likely to become a singularly powerful international player.

"The Chinese have severe limits on their ability to engage in international adventure. The People's Liberation Army is physically blocked from large-scale military operations by terrain. The Chinese navy is similarly limited, blocked as it is in the South China Sea and the East China Sea by the East Asian archipelago. It can exert pressure within these confined spaces until and unless the United States intervenes. Even with its anti-ship missiles, which can be destroyed by air campaigns, China cannot yet risk facing the U.S. Navy. It therefore probes below the threshold of triggering action."

I think you will find the entire article enlightening.