Over My Shoulder

David Zervos: “She may be the best we have ever seen”

March 18, 2016

Zervos is still a cheerleader for Janet Yellen and soft-money policies. If you read his last piece, he thinks the major central banks of the G20 have arrived at some kind of agreement over coordinated monetary policies. Obviously, no one wants to see China feel pressured to devalue the yuan. That being said, the central banks of the world, led by the Federal Reserve, have decided that they should set the price of money as opposed to letting the markets do it. Twelve people sitting in a room have decided that they are smarter and know more than the markets. Maybe… but that's not the way I would bet.
 
However, my philosophical inclinations don't make any difference: we have to deal with the reality on the ground, and the reality on the ground says the Fed is going to be easier for longer than most of us have anticipated; and that is going to have consequences for the markets.
 
David ends up with this:
 
"That said, there will likely be plenty of near term confusion in markets as folks try to trade off of the old weak currency/strong equity market correlations. My guess is that correlation is about to break hard – and a bunch of black box systematic correlation junkies are about to get their heads handed to them. It’s going to be a very interesting next few weeks in trading."

Download - 160318_Zervos.pdf