Over My Shoulder

David Zervos: Exorcising the QE demons from fixed-income markets

June 23, 2013

I occasionally point you to David Zervos over at Jefferies, who is an unabashed fan-boy of Bernanke and the Fed – one of the smartest representatives of that breed. I read him to get the view from the inside of the "cabal" as to how the Fed is thinking. You should as well. And he gives us a different take from what the mainstream media said about Bernanke press conference last week. Short and worth reading twice.

"Going forward it appears the Fed will only provide us with state-contingent policy clarity. If economic prospects sour, they will buy more bonds and stay lower for longer. Ben said as much Wednesday. So the 'Bernanke Put' is very much alive and well. But if the economic data improve, they will remove accommodation. In addition, there is an important tradeoff now between financial stability and the speed with which they plan to meet the dual mandate. The bubble busters won some converts around the FOMC table in the last few meetings. Risk premiums are headed higher, volatility is headed higher, and the leverage in high-quality fixed-income assets has to come down! Right now money is not 'leaving' debt markets in this downtrade, leverage is just being cut!"

Download - zervos.pdf