- January 17, 2025
A Possible Storm
Rain can be either refreshing or destructive. It can make plants grow or produce devastating floods. But in all cases, it’s largely outside human control. Or is it?
Read moreThoughts from the Frontline: Tag = "maudlin"
- January 10, 2025
A Partly Cloudy Year
Weather forecasters tell us what kind of weather we should expect. They can be wrong, but their short-term outlooks are generally reliable. The old joke that economists exist to make weathermen look good is funny because it has a ring of ironic truth.
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- January 3, 2025
A Controversial Start
It was an amazingly short week, punctuated by making 20 gallons of chili, serving almost 300 of my neighbors, and then recovering the next day, which didn’t leave a lot of time for in-depth analysis and forecasts. I’m sure you will be happy with the shortened letter as we cover some of the main events of last year and the ones that will have the most impact this year. A few will surprise you. Let’s jump in.
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- December 27, 2024
Live Free and Don’t Die
As I said last week, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how they all seem to “climax” around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before), we will see the bond market begin reacting to the increasingly large national debt. I came across the word “polycrisis” this week, and while the context was different, the concept of multiple significant crises all coinciding is useful.
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- December 20, 2024
Quantum Supremacy
As longtime readers know, I am working on a book outlining five different theories on historical cycles and how their predicted “climaxes” all occur around 2030. I’m also very concerned that around that time (if not before) we will see the bond market react badly to the fast-growing national debt. While my poor editors at Wiley are very concerned with my delivery being somewhat behind schedule, I really am making progress.
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- December 13, 2024
Demanding Energy
Energy is everything. Or, if Einstein was right, you and I are just energy in material form. Accelerate us to lightspeed squared and we might become something else.
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- November 29, 2024
The Changing Nature of the Stock Market?
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years? This week, in what I hope is a short Thanksgiving letter, I will talk about why that is simultaneously one of the most important and irrelevant questions you should be thinking about as we come into the holiday season.
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- November 22, 2024
Waste, Fraud, and Abuse
Politicians and think-tank wonks of all stripes love to condemn government “waste, fraud, and abuse.” But saying it isn’t hard. Who is the opposition? No one says we need more waste, fraud, and abuse. We’re all 100% agreed all three are bad.
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- November 15, 2024
The Trump Inflation Problem
Two weeks ago, I opened this letter by noting the election uncertainty, once over, would give way to a different uncertainty about what comes next. That’s where we are now.
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- November 1, 2024
One-Way Road to Crisis
Anyone else ready for the election to be over? This uncertainty is exhausting, no matter how you want it to end. But sadly, it won’t really end. We will just transition to a different uncertainty over what will happen next. I will offer my thoughts on the election at the end of this letter, after setting the stage.
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