Financial market news has seemingly become all tariffs, all the time. The president’s plan, whatever it is, seems to spring from his belief that trade deficits are bad and must be eliminated. Tariffs are just a means to that end.
Read moreThe theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession. That is certainly what today’s writer and my friend, Danielle DiMartino Booth, points to in this second part of her data-driven inflation analysis, which I share below. She believes the mainstream media, both financial and otherwise, is missing the fact that inflation is going to come down faster than most analysts expect—including those at the Federal...
Read moreLast week we published a chart of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which had just dropped sharply to a -2.4% real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025. This model can be volatile. Its latest big swing was mostly an artifact of spiking gold imports. Economic growth prospects do seem to have dimmed considerably, though.
Read more“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
—Yale economist Irving Fisher 12 days before Black Monday in October 1929
Read moreBull’s Eye Investing was published on January 1, 2004. It quickly became a bestseller. The main thing that people still ask me about was a trifold spread color chart of stock market returns since 1900. Returns were color-coded so readers could see the ebb and flow of returns over time. That remarkable representation of market performance was created by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed and I shared a very nerdy, wonkish fascination with markets and trends. We spent a great deal of time...
Read moreLast week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.
Read moreI think I’m going to start a new 12-step program. I sense there are a lot of potential members. The meetings would start with something like this:
“Hi. My name is John. I have Trump Confusion Syndrome. I don’t think it’s contagious, but many of my friends are suffering similar symptoms.
Read moreToday we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Read more“There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote from Vladimir Lenin, who may have copied it from someone else. Regardless of origin, it is true and will be even more true as technology and even government changes faster. We may have just lived through such a week for the financial markets—and maybe for the whole global economy.
Read moreThe Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming. We can only know what we want. For a variety of reasons, we may or may not get it, not least of which is that we want a variety of things that may not overlap with what our fellow citizens want.
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