Thoughts from the Frontline: Tag = "Inflation"

Disturbing Thoughts
  • March 31, 2023

Disturbing Thoughts

Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).

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Another Unstable Finger
  • March 17, 2023

Another Unstable Finger

“There’s an old saying: Whenever the Fed hits the brakes, someone goes through the windshield,” said Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan. “You just never know who it’s going to be.” (The New York Times, March 16, 2023)

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How It Started/How It’s Going
  • March 3, 2023

How It Started/How It’s Going

If you read and pay attention to the world, you probably know the recent past pretty well. And if you’re a history buff like me, you also know something about the more distant past.

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Adjustments Matter
  • February 17, 2023

Adjustments Matter

Federal Reserve officials like to call their decisions “data dependent.” Business leaders say it a little differently, often “data driven.” The point, in both cases, is something like: “We consider relevant data when making important decisions.”

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Growth Pains
  • January 27, 2023

Growth Pains

In stock investing there’s a management style called “growth at a reasonable price” or GARP. It seeks to achieve steadier results by avoiding both expensive growth stocks and beaten-down value stocks.

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The Punchbowl Is Gone
  • January 13, 2023

The Punchbowl Is Gone

The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year. But we know they’re unanimously against cutting rates until at least 2024—or at least they were as of December, according to that meeting’s minutes.

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Year of the Pause
  • January 6, 2023

Year of the Pause

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” — Seneca, the Elder

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.” 
— H.L. Mencken

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Recession Scale
  • December 9, 2022

Recession Scale

Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.

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Recession Thoughts
  • November 11, 2022

Recession Thoughts

Early this week, with the severe inverted yield curve and other signals flashing recession, I planned to use this letter to delve into the data. Then Thursday’s CPI data convinced markets to blow the all-clear whistle.

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Pension Sandpile
  • October 14, 2022

Pension Sandpile

Sandpiles can be fun. Nothing beats taking kids to the beach (or being a kid!) and watching their creativity blossom into all kinds of magical shapes. The problem with sand construction is it doesn’t last. I have it on good authority that building your house on the sand probably won’t end well.

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