While inflation is technically about general price levels, in practice we use it to describe living costs. That’s why the benchmarks measure consumer prices and personal consumption expenditures. These are where higher prices hurt because they apply to everyone. Other measures like the Producer Price Index have valuable information but are less immediately relevant to most people.
Read moreThe market, and maybe all of us, would like to believe the latest 3% annual CPI number was a harbinger of ever-lower inflation, and we are on the road to 2% inflation by year end. I would argue, “Not so fast.” Inflation is far from dead, and CPI will likely go slightly up between now and the end of the year. The Fed has multiple problems we will examine over the next few weeks.
Read moreNational leaders are (or should be) reluctant to enter wars because, once begun, they are often hard to end. You could be bogged down for years, vainly trying plan after plan as the damage accumulates.
Read moreI’ve often thought it would be fun to convene a therapy group of weather forecasters and economic forecasters. Both face the same frustration: Everybody wants a clear, simple answer they can’t possibly give, because they don’t know. Then they get blamed for being wrong anyway.
Read moreA year ago, the US Consumer Price Index was rising at an almost 9% annual rate. The Federal Reserve was trying to change that trend with tighter policy. But it wasn’t just the Fed. All of us—businesses, consumers, everyone—responded to the pain.
Read moreWorld economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.
Read moreThe week we’ve been waiting for is here. The Strategic Investment Conference starts Monday, and we have a jam-packed schedule.
Read moreBack before clocks went digital, you could say “a stopped clock is right twice a day” and even youngsters would know what you meant. A mechanism could be nonfunctional but occasionally correct.
Read moreSpotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.
Read more“Thinking the Unthinkable.” What does that phrase bring to mind? To me it suggests a situation that has become so stressed you are forced to consider undesirable solutions.
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