Financial market news has seemingly become all tariffs, all the time. The president’s plan, whatever it is, seems to spring from his belief that trade deficits are bad and must be eliminated. Tariffs are just a means to that end.
Read moreThe theme among so many writers seems to be “vibe shift.” And indeed, there is a concern the economy is slowing and may even be in a recession. That is certainly what today’s writer and my friend, Danielle DiMartino Booth, points to in this second part of her data-driven inflation analysis, which I share below. She believes the mainstream media, both financial and otherwise, is missing the fact that inflation is going to come down faster than most analysts expect—including those at the Federal...
Read moreLast week we published a chart of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which had just dropped sharply to a -2.4% real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025. This model can be volatile. Its latest big swing was mostly an artifact of spiking gold imports. Economic growth prospects do seem to have dimmed considerably, though.
Read more“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
—Yale economist Irving Fisher 12 days before Black Monday in October 1929
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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