Here in the US, people are obsessed with the impending election. It is perhaps the World’s Largest Guessing Game. We can look at polls and make our best guesses, but no one really knows what will happen. We just have to wait for more data which will (hopefully) be forthcoming November 5 or soon afterward.
Read moreOfficial inflation data, while imperfect in many ways, at least has the advantage of being consistently imperfect. This lets us make comparisons across time. The magnitude may be off, but the direction is usually right (except at unusually sharp turns like 2020).
Read moreA challenge in writing a weekly letter like this is that the economy never stops. Important data keeps accumulating, whether I write about it or not.
Read more“Freedom of speech” is a beautiful phrase, strong, optimistic. It has a ring to it. But it’s being replaced in the discourse by “disinformation” and “misinformation,” words that aren’t beautiful but full of the small, pettifogging, bureaucratic anxiety of a familiar American villain: the busybody, the prohibitionist, the Nosey Parker, the snoop.
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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