Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, October 2023

Debt Catharsis
  • October 27, 2023

Debt Catharsis

The ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on.

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Supercycle of Debt
  • October 20, 2023

Supercycle of Debt

We have been looking at big historical/economic/political cycles for the past two months. We reviewed Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning concept, then George Friedman’s twin US institutional and socioeconomic cycles, then Peter Turchin’s “cliodynamics” concept, and then Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle.

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The Big Cycle 2
  • October 13, 2023

The Big Cycle 2

When your system, whatever it may be, is working extremely well, we used to say it’s “firing on all 8 cylinders.” What does that mean?

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The Big Cycle
  • October 6, 2023

The Big Cycle

“…what I learned is whatever successes I had in life had to do more with how I dealt with what I didn’t know than what I know…

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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