Intermission is over. Today we resume my series on the global cycle theories that, probably not by coincidence, all point to major change unfolding in the next few years. Finishing it may take some time since I keep finding new material.
Read moreLast week we began exploring the details of my personal portfolio. This week we will finish and then move back to our discussion of various cycles. You might want to read the first part of this letter if you missed it.
Read moreI am now in my 24th year of writing Thoughts from the Frontline. I started in early 2000 with 2,000 readers from a previous newsletter project and had no idea it would become as popular as it has. I want to thank all of my longtime readers and welcome the new ones! You are what keeps me writing and energetic!
Read moreGreetings from Europe. I promised to write a letter describing my personal investment portfolio. I still plan to, but it won’t be this week. Shane and I are having a wonderful trip—a much-needed break for both of us.
Read moreLook up the word “cycle” in a dictionary, and you’ll find something like this: “A regularly recurring sequence of events.” Sounds simple, but that definition leaves a lot of ambiguity.
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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