Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, April 2023

Still Rethinking the Fed
  • April 21, 2023

Still Rethinking the Fed

Back before clocks went digital, you could say “a stopped clock is right twice a day” and even youngsters would know what you meant. A mechanism could be nonfunctional but occasionally correct.

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Inflationary Choices
  • April 14, 2023

Inflationary Choices

Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.

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Thinking the Unthinkable
  • April 7, 2023

Thinking the Unthinkable

“Thinking the Unthinkable.” What does that phrase bring to mind? To me it suggests a situation that has become so stressed you are forced to consider undesirable solutions.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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