A winters day,
In a deep and dark December…
“Wait, it doesn’t feel like winter. It’s not deep and dark, and it’s actually warm, and the sun is shining. Toto Shane, I don’t think we’re in Kansas Texas anymore.”
We have reached the best time of year, when we can look to the future with hope. We can stop wondering what will happen in 2018 and look forward to 2019. The investment industry always does this enthusiastically, as you will see in forecasts everywhere the next few weeks.
Read moreEverybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve. They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. The yield curve isn’t saying recession is imminent, even if it were fully inverted, which it is not.
Read moreSomeone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.
Read more
The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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