Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, December 2015

The Seven Fat Years of ZIRP
  • December 20, 2015

The Seven Fat Years of ZIRP

“The Fed’s emergency policies since 2008 have in one sense been a huge success, though we will never know the counter-factual. A great depression was averted. Output is 10pc above its previous peak. Employment is up by 4.7m.

“Yet zero rates and QE set off torrid credit bubbles in the emerging world, pushing up the global debt ratio by 30pc of GDP beyond their previous record in 2008. The Bank for International Settlements calls this a “Pareto sub-optimal” for the world as a whole. The chickens...

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George Friedman’s World of Geopolitics
  • December 11, 2015

George Friedman’s World of Geopolitics

Today I can finally announce an exciting event for Mauldin Economics and for me personally. I believe you will be excited, too.

Longtime readers know that George Friedman, one of the world’s foremost geopolitical analysts, and I are very close friends. We have been collaborating for years.

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You Have Questions, I Have Answers
  • December 6, 2015

You Have Questions, I Have Answers

Every week when I write letters to you, I face the question of what to write about and where to start. I actually had a story finished for you early Friday (and it was unusual for me to be done so early).

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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