• March 25, 2011

Unintended Consequences

The central banks of the developed world are printing money and are engaged in a very-low-interest-rate regime. What does that mean for emerging markets? It is more than just a dilemma, it is a tri-lemma – they have problems not just coming and going but also sitting still! I am in Zurich tonight after a long day, with a 4:30 AM wake-up call to get back home, but deadlines are deadlines. So, to make this one easier on me as well as hopefully instructive for you, you will get chapter...

• March 18, 2011

The End of QE2?

What happens when the Fed is finished with QE2? I have been letting that filter into my thinking lately as I look at the economic landscape and the data we have seen the past few weeks. Correlation is not causation, as I often say, but all we can do is look back at what happened last time and speculate about the future. A very dangerous occupation, but your fearless analyst will plunge on ahead into the jungle of a very hazy future. You come with me at your own risk!

New York...

• March 11, 2011

Inflation and Hyperinflation

Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans.

—R. H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926

By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.

—John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace

Unemployed men took one or two rucksacks and went from peasant to peasant. They even took the train to favorable locations to get...

• March 5, 2011

Are Booming Economies Good for the Markets?

People only accept change in necessity and see necessity only in crisis.

—Jean Monnet

The economy is doing better, and we will survey some of the highlights. But does this mean the stock market is headed higher? A chart from Louis Gave got me to thinking, and I shot off a few thoughts and questions to Ed Easterling and Vitaliy Katsenelson. What ensued was a lively “battle” of charts and thoughts and more questions, so this week I let you look over my shoulder at...