Long time readers have been asking me to re-visit some of my old themes and recommendations. Today we are going to visit our old friends, The Three Amigos , to see what these historically accurate indicators have to tell us about the direction of the economy. Is it safe to get back in the water? I suggest a special way to invest in high yield bonds that you don't want to miss.
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Reader response to my prediction that we are in the Muddle Through Economy has been interesting. While most readers seem to agree, a few think I am being too pessimistic and we are poised for a boom and many of you think we are headed for a far worse economic scenario.
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My theme for the last few weeks has been that we are in the Muddle Through Economy -not much downside but not much upside. The data this week reinforces my point. Today we will look at the evidence that continues to mount.
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What an amazing week. The data deluge as I came back into the office from Florida was staggering, and I write this letter late at night after a day of reading and thinking.
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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