Wow! What a data downpour the last few days! We are going to cover Warren Buffett, junk bonds, Enron, deflation, corporate accounting hank-panky, and the wildest markets I can remember. Let's jump in and see where we end up.
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Time to put on our thinking caps. This is an important and seminal e-letter, as it will help form the basis and rationale for future investment suggestions. Rather than focus on where the market is going in the next two weeks, today we are going to try to get an idea over where the market is headed in the next ten years. Armed with that information, we can more logically structure our portfolios to take advantage of the prevailing winds.
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"Leningrad gets DAMNED cold in the winter, so bring it on, lay the price siege, and lets see who can outlast whom." For details see more below.
Lot's of news this week, especially in the oil patch. Kuwait tells us there is "no floor for oil prices." I smell a rat. Let's jump right in.
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Let's look at the huge amount of data that we had this week. (Thanks to Wayne Anderson in my office who gathered a few hundred pages of articles for me to read while I was out.)
I had dinner with fellow analyst Greg Weldon this last Sunday in New Jersey. Watching the scores of wild swans and Canadian geese on a tranquil ocean side pond, we reflected about what Greg calls the "deflation tsunami" that is sweeping the world, which is anything BUT tranquil.
Deflation has been a long time...
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What a week! There is so much to talk about, and the good news is that it is not all bad! The theme of today's e-letter is going to be : "The Games People Play". My less than sainted Dad was a games player. I have a letter on the wall over my desk from John Wayne to my Dad referring to some legendary WW II poker games. (The Duke was gloating. He won. Dad lost. But Dad made it up from Wayne's scotch horde.) Dad's dictum: "Tell me the rules and deal the cards. Just don't change the rules in...
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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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