Labor Day weekend finds me in far northwest British Columbia, fishing with 29 of my readers. The conversations are deep and fascinating, and it should be no surprise that politics and markets are brought up more often than not. Labor Day is traditionally when most Americans, other than us political junkies, actually begin noticing politics.
Read moreThere was an historically large revision to the unemployment data this week, which was even worse than the headline when you dig into the actual numbers. On top of that, there is some “behind the numbers” data on inflation, which is typically not talked about, that will have a big impact on the Fed decision, not to mention traders and mortgages. This all has implications for the economy and maybe even for the election. While it's not quite Sophie's Choice, it's still not easy for the Fed....
Read moreIn basketball and other sports, a “head fake” means the player moves their head as if they are about to turn left or right, but then doesn’t do so. This can fool an opposing player into moving the wrong way.
Read moreI can't let this month pass without noting a significant anniversary: This is the 25th year I’ve been writing Thoughts from the Frontline. The first few issues were lost to the electronic gods and my lack of technical prowess back then. That quickly changed. You can visit the archive and see every issue since January 2001 (including, trust me, some I would like to remove). That's roughly 5 million words, not counting 7 (soon to be 8) books, numerous papers and articles, speeches, emails, and...
Read more“Alice laughed. 'There's no use trying,' she said. 'One can't believe impossible things.'”
Read moreThe ability to choose our goods and services is fundamental to economics. The freer we are to make choices, the more the economy should prosper. That’s because our choices tell producers what works.
Read moreWe are in the time of year when Americans pack transatlantic airliners for their European vacations. I had actually hoped to be one of them. That didn’t work out but we can still talk about events in Europe. And we probably should, because potentially major changes are happening.
Read moreI am writing this letter on the afternoon of July 4th, so it is natural to think about our government and independence. I want to comment on the Chevron case which is blowing up my X (Twitter) feed as well as my news feeds, both for and against. It is both less and more than many of the quick reactions. I would like to interject a little calmness, as not a great deal will immediately change, but it will change our experiment with self-government.
Read moreThe giant federal debt we’ve been talking about isn’t just borrowed money. It is also lent money. Loans are two-party transactions. One side receives temporary use of cash which it agrees to repay with interest. The other gives up the current use of that cash in exchange for receiving interest. Ideally, it works out for both… but not always.
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