Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, February 2025

The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated
  • February 28, 2025

The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated

Bull’s Eye Investing was published on January 1, 2004. It quickly became a bestseller. The main thing that people still ask me about was a trifold spread color chart of stock market returns since 1900. Returns were color-coded so readers could see the ebb and flow of returns over time. That remarkable representation of market performance was created by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed and I shared a very nerdy, wonkish fascination with markets and trends. We spent a great deal of time...

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Revenue Thoughts
  • February 21, 2025

Revenue Thoughts

Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.

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Trump Confusion Syndrome
  • February 14, 2025

Trump Confusion Syndrome

I think I’m going to start a new 12-step program. I sense there are a lot of potential members. The meetings would start with something like this: 

“Hi. My name is John. I have Trump Confusion Syndrome. I don’t think it’s contagious, but many of my friends are suffering similar symptoms.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

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The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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