Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, July 2023

Turning Time
  • July 28, 2023

Turning Time

We talk frequently about the way central banks and governments affect the economy. In the grander scheme of things, though, whatever the Fed does is more like throwing a hand grenade into a large building. Yes, you’ll make some noise and cause some damage. People may be hurt. But the building won’t care, and the owner will fix it.

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Housing Hiccups
  • July 21, 2023

Housing Hiccups

While inflation is technically about general price levels, in practice we use it to describe living costs. That’s why the benchmarks measure consumer prices and personal consumption expenditures. These are where higher prices hurt because they apply to everyone. Other measures like the Producer Price Index have valuable information but are less immediately relevant to most people.

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Flip Side of the Inflation Coin
  • July 14, 2023

Flip Side of the Inflation Coin

The market, and maybe all of us, would like to believe the latest 3% annual CPI number was a harbinger of ever-lower inflation, and we are on the road to 2% inflation by year end. I would argue, “Not so fast.” Inflation is far from dead, and CPI will likely go slightly up between now and the end of the year. The Fed has multiple problems we will examine over the next few weeks.

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Muddled Optimism
  • July 7, 2023

Muddled Optimism

“A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest…”

—The Boxer, Paul Simon, 1969

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