Help me spread some optimism this Christmas season

I hope you’re enjoying the holidays with family and friends.

We had Christmas dinner at my wife’s parents’ house. Pigs in blankets… honey-glazed ham… and sticky toffee pudding washed down with a glass of Burgundy. What’s not to like?

It got me thinking. Within living memory, millions of men spent Christmas fighting in soggy, miserable trenches. Can you imagine?

Today, I want to express some gratitude and optimism.

Even with the wars in Ukraine and Israel, we live in the most peaceful time in human history.

Here are five more reasons I’m optimistic this Christmas season...

1. New businesses are booming.

Americans are starting their own businesses at the fastest rate EVER. In 2023, entrepreneurs launched more small businesses than at any other time in history:

Millions of Americans are quitting dead-end jobs to pursue their passions. The world will be a much happier place.

2. We all got the greatest gift: more time.

The average commute pre-COVID was 54 minutes. Americans are saving over 60 million commuting hours per day with remote work. Per day!

WFH is like a time machine that gives us thousands of hours of life back. We can all get a lot more done, which generates more wealth.

Time you would’ve spent stressed in rush-hour traffic can now be spent relaxing with your kids, or getting fit in the gym.

I’m confident the WFH revolution will lead to something HUGE. Possibly an economic boom unlike anything in our lifetimes.

3. Never bet against America.

Can you name the world’s largest oil-producing country?

It’s not Saudi Arabia… Russia… or Iran.

It’s the good ol’ USA.

America now produces a record 13 million barrels of oil per day:

We were hooked on foreign oil for decades. It seemed hopeless.

But today, America sells more oil than it buys. And it’s all thanks to “fracking”—which releases oil and gas trapped deep down inside previously inaccessible areas.

Never bet against American ingenuity.

4. TRIGGER WARNING: Narrative violation…

What if I told you global inequality just hit its lowest level in nearly 150 years?

Look at this chart of the Gini coefficient, the “go to” measure of income inequality. It’s fallen to levels last seen in 1890!

Source: Our World in Data

Back then, everyone was equally poor. Today, people globally are growing more equally rich.

Is it because we’re consuming more resources and dirtying up the planet? Not really.

If you’re the type of person who cares about carbon emissions… here’s some more great news.

On a per-person basis, Americans are the “greenest” they’ve been in modern times:

Source: Our World in Data

Meanwhile, across the pond in London, the air has never been better in recorded history:

Source: Our World in Data

5. We’ve come a long, long way.

In 1800, 90% of people lived in extreme poverty. Today, less than 10% live below the bread line.

In 1950, one in every four kids died before their 15th birthday. Now, fewer than one in 20 do. These advances saved over 120 million kids in just the past 30 years!

Had you been alive 200 years ago, there would have been a 90% chance you were illiterate. Today, more than 80% of the global population can read and write:

Source: Our World in Data

I started The Jolt to fight back against the stench of pessimism in the air.

Optimism is contagious. We need more of it.

What makes you most optimistic about the next decade?

Tell me at stephen@riskhedge.com.

Stephen McBride
Chief Analyst, RiskHedge

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