Thoughts from the Frontline

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Latest Articles

The Uncertainty World
  • April 18, 2025

The Uncertainty World

Markets don’t like uncertainty. It is a cliché, but for a very good reason. It is more than a truism. In fact, businesses don’t like uncertainty. You and I don’t like uncertainty in our personal lives. When we go to the store, we want to be certain that what we are looking for is there, and at a reasonable price. We want our food orders to be certain. We want our relationships to be certain. In fact, the relationships we value most are the ones in which we feel certain whether it’s personal,...

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The Uncertainty Recession
  • April 11, 2025

The Uncertainty Recession

You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.

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The Tariff Recession?
  • April 4, 2025

The Tariff Recession?

Good news: Tariffs will not make the world end. American businesses will do what they do best, which is adapt. While the probability of a recession has increased, we always get through it and the best businesses thrive. Unless directly affected by tariffs, don’t change your personal plans that much. Much of this may change over the next few weeks or months, for reasons I outline below.

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Do Trade Deficits Matter?
  • March 28, 2025

Do Trade Deficits Matter?

Financial market news has seemingly become all tariffs, all the time. The president’s plan, whatever it is, seems to spring from his belief that trade deficits are bad and must be eliminated. Tariffs are just a means to that end.

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Thoughts from the Frontline explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.

The newsletter began as John’s way of sharing his thoughts with a few associates. Two decades later, it is one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world. From his warning of an impending recession in 2000, to a polemic on the Obamacare “death spiral” in 2016, John has blazed his own trail as one of the most respected macroeconomic minds in the field.

"Central bankers, businessmen, and investors continually try to beat History to a pulp, but History always wins the final rounds."

John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline, 2001.
Thoughts from the Frontline
Thoughts from the Frontline

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John Mauldin

John Mauldin

Editor, Thoughts from the Frontline

When investors, financial professionals, and discerning citizens need a big-picture view of what's going on in the economy, they turn to John Mauldin.

And for good reason. John has dedicated more than 30 years to keeping people informed about financial risk.

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The Coming Supercycle Crisis

Before you go... Grab a free copy of John Mauldin's The Coming Supercycle Crisis

The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.

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