Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. This in-depth weekly dispatch helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence.
Last week we published a chart of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which had just dropped sharply to a -2.4% real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025. This model can be volatile. Its latest big swing was mostly an artifact of spiking gold imports. Economic growth prospects do seem to have dimmed considerably, though.
Read more“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
—Yale economist Irving Fisher 12 days before Black Monday in October 1929
Read moreBull’s Eye Investing was published on January 1, 2004. It quickly became a bestseller. The main thing that people still ask me about was a trifold spread color chart of stock market returns since 1900. Returns were color-coded so readers could see the ebb and flow of returns over time. That remarkable representation of market performance was created by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed and I shared a very nerdy, wonkish fascination with markets and trends. We spent a great deal of time...
Read moreLast week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term.
Read moreThoughts from the Frontline explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.
The newsletter began as John’s way of sharing his thoughts with a few associates. Two decades later, it is one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world. From his warning of an impending recession in 2000, to a polemic on the Obamacare “death spiral” in 2016, John has blazed his own trail as one of the most respected macroeconomic minds in the field.
"Central bankers, businessmen, and investors continually try to beat History to a pulp, but History always wins the final rounds."
When investors, financial professionals, and discerning citizens need a big-picture view of what's going on in the economy, they turn to John Mauldin.
And for good reason. John has dedicated more than 30 years to keeping people informed about financial risk.
The Debt Supercycle theory traces the increasing transfer of private debt to government balance sheets, highlighting its implications, the unique constraints of government debt management, and potential future scenarios—including the limits of government borrowing, the role of bond vigilantes, and the risk of a major fiscal crisis if current trends continue.
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